Thursday

On Monday we are going to watch a documentary called "The Forecaster". It is about the quite controversial financial analyst Martin Armstrong. He has developed a model called "The Economic Confidence Model", which can predict future developments in the world economy. He proposes that economic waves occur every 8.6 years, or 3141 Days. His model can even predict the outbreak of wars with extreme accuracy. Armstrong was sent to prison after designing the model. Last year the Germans Marcus Vetter & Karin Steinberger released a documentary about Armstrong, in which Armstrong predicts a major economic collapse in October 2015.

After having seen the film I want you to be able to mention a few examples of signs in society that an economic collapse might be ahead? This will also be a part of the English test in week 38.

On the test I also want you to be able to (simply) explain in English the following financial terms:

stock exchange
stock
share
stockbroker
IPO
ROI
bear market
bull market
volatility
index
blue chips stock

Have a look at the following video clips. They will help you:


Online:
Business English Vocabulary; The Stock market
Do the quiz beneath the video clip after you have seen the clip. Good practise!

QUIZ


Online:
What is the Stock Exchange?
What is a stock market crash?


Talk to each other about the different terms and what they mean. Help each other! The more you talk/discuss about it the more you will understand (hopefully ;)

*******************************************************************************

To get a background to the film read the following text: (look up words you do not understand THIS is a good online Dictionary) Below you have definitions of a few words in the text.

The Story of Martin Armstrong

Can a computer model predict the world economy?

 

The year is 2014: Europe is stumbling from one emergency summit to the next. America has gone crashing through the 15-billion-dollar debt ceiling. People are taking to the streets across the world because they have realized that something has been thrown off kilter; that the market economy is tearing a vast rift between the super rich and the masses; that the banks have spiralled out of control; that governments have lost their grip on public debt.

And after eleven years off the radar, a man resurfaces in Philadelphia, a man who used a computer model and the number pi in the nineties to predict economic turning points with astounding precision: Martin Armstrong predicted the exact date of the October crash in 1987, the demise of the Japanese bull market in 1990, the turning point for the US and European markets in July 1998 and the Nikkei crash in 1989. He was one of the wealthiest Wall Street market analysts and was named economist of the decade and fund manager of the year in 1998. But he refused to play along with the bankers’ game and warned his customers that “the club” was manipulating currency and silver markets. He quickly made powerful enemies: New York investment bankers, hedge funds managers, Salomon Brothers, Goldman Sachs. The FBI and SEC, US Securities and the Exchange Commission, started to show interest in his computer model. In 1999 he was arrested on charges of fraud which he still disputes to this day. He was incarcerated for seven years for contempt of court. After time in solitary confinement and threats against his mother, he signed a partial confession and was sentenced to a further four years.

This documentary film portrays a man returning to his life after eleven years in prison. It follows him as he meets his old partners for the first time and depicts his first public speech to people who are still prepared to travel from across the globe and pay handsome sums to hear him speak. The film shows him attempting to prove his innocence and expose the power of the New York banks.

taking to the streets . tell it to everbody, go out demonstrate
thrown of kilter - out of balance
rift - a situation in which two people, groups, etc., no longer have a friendly relationship
demise - to die or cease to exist
hedge fund -  a group of investors who take financial risks together in order to try to earn a lot of money
SEC - an agency of the United States federal government. It holds primary responsibility for enforcing the federal securities laws, proposing securities rules, and regulating the securities industry, the nation's stock and options exchanges,
fraud - the crime of using dishonest methods to take something valuable from another person
disputes - to struggle against
incarcerated - to put (someone) in prison
contempt of Court - the offense of being disobedient to or disrespectful towards a court of law
solitary confinement - a form of imprisonment in which an inmate is isolated from any human contact


*******************************************************************************


For the test in week 38 you should also do:

Grammar:
Do the exercises on page 294-296 + 297-298 (present and past tense)

Time left?
Study your words (the homework) + Online tasks Context + Context ++ on Student´s web (Context 2)

Homework to remember:
30 words for Monday
Writing assignment for Thursday